New publication: Cumulative emissions and climate policy

Posted on 26th September 2014

David J. Frame, Adrian H. Macey & Myles R. Allen (2104) Cumulative emissions and climate policy Nature Geoscience doi:10.1038/ngeo2254 Introduction For any given temperature target, such as limiting the warming of global mean surface temperatures to 2 °C above preindustrial levels, there is a total amount of carbon dioxide that can be emitted into the atmosphere. […]

Read full article »

New publication: weather@home – development and validation of a very large ensemble modelling system for probabilistic event attribution

Posted on 11th September 2014

N. Massey, R. Jones, F. E. L. Otto, T. Aina, S. Wilson, J. M. Murphy, D. Hassell, Y. H. Yamazaki and M. R. Allen (2014) weather@home – development and validation of a very large ensemble modelling system for probabilistic event attribution Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society DOI: 10.1002/qj.2455 Abstract Demonstrating the effect that […]

Read full article »

New publication: The stratopause evolution during different types of sudden stratospheric warming event

Posted on 8th September 2014

Etienne Vignon, Daniel M. Mitchell (2014) The stratopause evolution during different types of sudden stratospheric warming event Climate Dynamics DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2292-4 Abstract Recent work has shown that the vertical structure of the Arctic polar vortex during different types of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events can be very distinctive. Specifically, SSWs can be classified into polar […]

Read full article »

New publication: Potential influences on the United Kingdom’s floods of winter 2013/14

Posted on 8th September 2014

Chris Huntingford et al. (2014) Potential influences on the United Kingdom’s floods of winter 2013/14 Nature Climate Change DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2314 Abstract During the winter of 2013/14, much of the UK experienced repeated intense rainfall events and flooding. This had a considerable impact on property and transport infrastructure. A key question is whether the burning of […]

Read full article »

New publication: Operationalizing climate targets under learning: An application of cost-risk analysis

Posted on 8th September 2014

Delf Neubersch, Hermann Held, Alexander Otto (2014) Operationalizing climate targets under learning: An application of cost-risk analysis Climatic Change DOI 10.1007/s10584-014-1223-z Abstract Abstract Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (CEA) determines climate policies that reach a given climate target at minimum welfare losses. However, when applied to temperature targets under climate sensitivity uncertainty, decision-makers might be confronted with normatively […]

Read full article »